Well, I wasn't quite right, it was a mix of my guesses (and keeping around the 3GS).
It's odd the some "analysts" are disappointed. It is everything people hoped for in the next iPhone, with the exception of a bigger screen, a different shape, and the number 5 in the name.
But looking back, nobody should be surprised. Other than the very first iPhone, all the rest have been evolutionary steps, adding more and making it more powerful. And it may be they always do the style change every 2 years rather than every year. It's nice that I can re-use the case when I upgrade :)
Now I wonder if they go back to a Summer release for the iPhone, or if it's now going to be coming in the fall. It makes sense to announce the newest iOS version at the big WWDC conference, then give the summer for developers to work and do stuff with it, and release the next iPhone that uses it in the fall.
Judging by the iPhone, I'd guess the iPad 3 that it will be shaped exactly the same as the current one. Retina on the iPad will be the big (huge) selling point, so they won't need to update the styling to sell it.